Artificial intelligence becomes a national strategy: are you worried that your job will be taken away
Abstract: in july2017, the State Council issued the development plan for a new generation of artificial intelligence (hereinafter referred to as the plan), which proposed the guiding ideology, strategic objectives, key tasks and safeguard measures for the development of China's new generation of artificial intelligence in 2030 - Taking the national strength, we must seize the global commanding heights of artificial intelligence in 2030
in July 2017, the State Council issued the development plan for the new generation of artificial intelligence (hereinafter referred to as the plan), which proposed the guiding ideology, strategic objectives, key tasks and safeguard measures for the development of China's new generation of artificial intelligence by 2030 - Taking the national strength to seize the global commanding heights of artificial intelligence by 2030
a stone stirs up thousands of waves. The first layer of waves is the general anxiety about their future jobs. Is the tide of unemployment coming? How much time do we have to prepare
1. Artificial intelligence is marching towards high-end jobs
recently, a factory producing dumplings in Qinhuangdao, China, became popular. There is not a single employee in the workshop of several thousand square meters. The robots on the assembly line can cope with everything from mixing noodles, putting stuffing, and kneading dumplings to freezing at minus 50 degrees Celsius
on August 24, the piano playing robot made a brilliant debut at the 2017 world robot conference. Xinhua News Agency issued
unmanned supermarkets, driverless hotels, unmanned restaurants... Now, unmanned factories have finally come
you can say that after all, this is a substitute for manual labor and will not affect the white-collar workers with higher education, so you don't feel shocked. If this is the case, let's take another look -
on August 8, 18 minutes after the Jiuzhaigou earthquake, the machine of the China Seismological Station wrote a manuscript, which took 25 seconds. The wording of the manuscript is accurate, the writing is fluent, and the terrain and weather are all inclusive. Even if the professional is ordered, the finished product is just like this. Considering the writing time of 25 seconds, human beings are completely defeated
previously, Ke Jie, the world's No. 1 go player who said "even if the alpha dog wins lishishi, it can't win me", challenged the alpha dog. Ke Jie was once called the "last line of defense" of human dignity. The reason is that the changes of go are extremely complex. Even computers cannot exhaust all the changes of black and white at 361 points on the chessboard. As a result, Ke Jie still lost
some people even predict that the alpha dog will destroy the entire financial circle in the next step. A typical example is: in 2000, Goldman Sachs employed 600 traders at the U.S. cash and stock exchange in New York. But today, there are only two traders left here
the experience of Goldman Sachs stock traders being replaced is only a microcosm of the automation of global financial companies. Now even currency transactions, and even some businesses of investment banks, are moving towards automation. Royal Bank of Scotland has released an online artificial intelligence customer service system. 5. The actual strength level between shoes and the ground. The customer service system can respond according to the customer's tone of voice. In addition, it does not need to rest and does not require overtime allowance. In a report released in january2017, McKinsey Global Research Institute said that there was a 43% chance that jobs in the financial and insurance fields would be replaced by automation
AI is moving towards high-end positions. It is predicted that in addition to Wall Street traders, high-end positions such as lawyers, accountants and doctors will also be largely replaced by artificial intelligence. Elon Musk said that in the next 20 years, 12-15% of the global labor force will be unemployed because of artificial intelligence. Li Kaifu believes that in 10 to 15 years, perhaps 50% of human beings will face partial or total replacement of work
did the above make you feel a little panic
2. "Will anyone worry about not being able to drive a carriage"
"it can be predicted that with the continuous development of artificial intelligence, the impact of artificial intelligence on employment will become more and more obvious." Wujiang, a researcher of the Chinese Academy of personnel Sciences, said, "however, when AI continues to beat the best human go players, we can predict that young people may not spend so much time studying go in the future, but will learn new knowledge that is more adaptable to the era of AI."
Wujiang told this story:
cars were actually created by the best carriage company in those years. Initially, the company used the power provided by the engine to make wagon wheels. The boss' younger brother did not work properly. He installed the engine on the wheels of the carriage and found that the horse could not be used. This was terrible at that time - so many people driving carriages all over the world were suddenly facing unemployment. Although it seems that there is nothing to worry about now, they can be car drivers. After all, machines need to be controlled by people
as early as the wave of industrial revolution swept the world, man-machine contradiction had already appeared. At first, people were frightened. Some even ran to smash the machine. "Throughout human history, all the machine revolutions did not destroy human beings. People created machines and machines changed people. The emergence of new machines has brought a lot of new jobs and provided more employment opportunities for mankind." Wujiang said, "now, more and more people are moving from the land to other industries, but will anyone worry about not being able to drive a carriage?"
"now driverless cars are ready to emerge, and the old problems are coming again. Do we have to worry about the job of car drivers again?" Taoqinghua, President of Huaxia International Talent Research Institute, said that historically, after every panic over technological progress, technological progress has created far more jobs for the society than it has "killed" obsolete jobs. For example, automated teller machines have replaced some bank tellers, but they have also allowed more employees to enter the sales and customer service fields that cannot be replaced by machines
"we must admit that in this era, we are integrating with the artificial intelligence track. In the future, artificial intelligence will replace human tedious and complex work in most fields. The phase change materials in the capsule will change from solid to liquid, allowing human beings to reduce labor time and increase free time." Wujiang said, "our weekly working hours have been reduced from 48 hours to 40 hours, and may be reduced to 30 hours or even 20 hours in the future. With less necessary working hours, it will take longer to improve quality and enjoy life. Finally, new jobs that workers can engage in will also be created."
"at present, less than 1% of the more than 300million people in the United States are engaged in agricultural production. It is no surprise that the number of people directly engaged in industry and agriculture will drop to 0.01% in the future." Wujiang said, "the labor-intensive era will eventually become history. Only when we are free from routine work, full of innovation and creativity, and live as a unique 'person', can we be irreplaceable competitive."
3. Workers must also transform and upgrade
"although mechanical and repeatable mental or physical labor will be replaced by artificial intelligence, there will be more new, deep and creative talent needs." Bashusong, chief economist of the China Banking Association, believes that "the arrival of the era of artificial intelligence will inevitably produce some 'unheard of' and 'intelligent' new jobs, such as' natural language processing ',' Speech Recognition Engineer 'and' robot product manager 'which have been recognized by the industry."
shenronghua, deputy director of the academic committee of the China Talent Research Association, said that the "old jobs" in traditional industries also need to develop to "artificial intelligence". For example, most security guards and translators will be replaced by artificial intelligence, but the remaining few people may have higher incomes, such as security principals who can operate security robots and have rich security experience, such as translators who are perpendicular to a specific field, For example, they specially write in-depth reports
of course, not everyone has the opportunity for the new jobs created by "intelligent OEM". "Every round of scientific and technological revolution will bring a new grand 350 pioneer. There will also be a round of work revolution with room for appreciation. Artificial intelligence will eliminate a large number of traditional labor forces. Obviously, there will be many industries that will die out because of the rise of artificial intelligence." Taoqinghua said, "however, we should also see that artificial intelligence will create high-end new industrial demand, which will lead to the transformation and upgrading of workers. Therefore, only new workers can adapt to the era of artificial intelligence."
taoqinghua pointed out that although the malpractice of some jobs being replaced would be resolved by the emergence of new jobs, the experience of the industrial revolution in the 19th century showed that the transformation process was extremely painful. A large number of people poured into urban factories from the countryside, causing continuous unrest in Europe at that time. It took hundreds of years for governments to build new education and welfare systems before they finally adapted to this transformation. "This reminds us that we should prepare plans for two major challenges in advance: one is how to help workers learn and master new skills; the other is how to make future generations reserve knowledge and ideas." He said
this time, the transformation seems to be more rapid. The current speed of science and technology transmission is much faster than that more than 200 years ago. "We must act in advance and be ready for new jobs." Comparing Tao Qing's analyzer with the machine impact tester, Hua pointed out that fortunately, the plan has made it clear that from now on, from primary education, middle school subjects to universities and colleges, artificial intelligence courses will be gradually added to build a national talent echelon. "This demand is both urgent and necessary. It is time for us to rethink education and regard it as a lifelong process. This means that we should no longer reward rote learning, but should reward curiosity and experiments, which are the cornerstone of discovering and understanding the unknown." He said, "if you want to grasp the future, you must start to consciously improve yourself now to catch up with the trend of the times."