Market consumption continues to grow, and there is limited room for Shanghai Jiao to continue to fall.
I. trend Review
1. Shanghai Jiao market
in July, after more than three months of shock consolidation, Shanghai Jiao launched a wave of sharp rise. In the first half of the month, the shock pattern was still maintained. In the later period of July 15, there was a very wide speed regulation range and the moving distance of the beam. Driven by the sharp rise in the international rubber price, the price rose rapidly. In just 10 trading days, when the sensor was pulled P, the range reached more than 2000 yuan. The reasons for the sharp rise of futures prices come from many aspects. First, the output is reduced due to the impact of the weather, especially the main producing countries Thailand and Indonesia have significantly reduced production, and the rising quotation directly promotes the rise of import costs. Secondly, the rapid domestic consumption has increased China's ship. Domestic automobile production and sales hit another record high. In addition, crude oil remained high and volatile, and the international rubber union continued to promote the export reduction plan, which also played a positive role in the rise of Shanghai rubber. Recently, due to insufficient cash follow-up, the contract price difference in recent and far months is too large, and the turbulence of surrounding commodities has intensified, which eventually led to a sharp fall in futures prices
2. Spot market
since July, the rubber spot market has experienced a rapid rise in stability, and its rising nature belongs to passive follow-up. In July, the standard glue increased from 14800 yuan to 17500 yuan. Synthetic polybutadiene rubber increased from 12000 yuan to 14000 yuan. The imported composite standard glue increased from 13950 yuan to 16150 yuan. However, compared with the Shanghai Rubber index, the increase is smaller. The price difference between the main futures contract and the spot remains high. This level of price difference is not conducive to the continued sharp rise in futures prices
the chart shows the current price trend of Tianjiao. (image source: Sino Swiss Finance)
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