Is the most frequent interest rate hike good or ba

  • Detail

Editor's note: since July 7, 2011, the central bank has raised the RMB deposit and loan benchmark interest rate of financial institutions again. The benchmark interest rates of one-year deposits and loans were raised by 0.25 percentage points respectively, and the benchmark interest rates of deposits and loans of other grades and personal housing provident fund loans were adjusted accordingly. This is the third time since the central bank raised interest rates this year. Is frequent interest rate hikes good or bad for the development of the machine tool industry? Based on relevant data and professional opinions, this paper makes a brief analysis of this phenomenon, and has some solutions to the phenomenon that the yield strength of multiple batches of parts is unqualified after one heat treatment, which is only for reference

in 2011, the central bank raised interest rates frequently

in 2010, China's economy showed a strong recovery, and in 2011, it continued the good situation of the previous year and developed steadily and continuously. The machine tool industry has also continued its upward trend in a good economic environment, stable and positive. The market recovered and the import and export volume increased. According to statistics, in 2011, the total import and export volume of China's machine tool products exceeded US $20billion for the first time, reaching US $22.75 billion, an increase of 57.5% year-on-year

however, due to the rising prices and the rapid growth of house prices, the society has always attached importance to them, affecting people's lives. In order to reduce the excessive investment in some industries, the central bank raised interest rates three times in 2011. For the first time, since February 9, 2011, the benchmark interest rates of one-year deposits and loans of financial institutions have been raised by 0.25 percentage points respectively, and the benchmark interest rates of deposits and loans of other grades have been adjusted accordingly. The second time, since April 6, 2011, the benchmark interest rates of one-year deposits and loans of financial institutions have been raised by 0.25 percentage points respectively. For the third time, since July 7, 2011, the benchmark interest rates of one-year deposits and loans have been raised by 0.25 percentage points respectively

raising interest rates brings financing difficulties

with the high level of deposit reserve ratio, the financing of some small and medium-sized enterprises has begun to become difficult, especially in manufacturing enterprises with slow capital recovery, which will face greater capital pressure. Different from other industries, the profit margins of machine tool enterprises are generally low. In addition to some large enterprises having sufficient capital guarantee, most small and medium-sized enterprises still need to achieve their investment in new plants and equipment through bank loans. The data shows that the latest increase in the reserve ratio can freeze more than 370 billion yuan of funds in the banking system, of which the reserve ratio of small and medium-sized banks has risen to a high level of 18%. For many small and medium-sized machine tool enterprises with small and medium-sized bank loans as the main financing channel, it has led to increased financing pressure to a certain extent. It will have a certain impact on the business income and cost or demand of some industries, such as banks, real estate, automobiles, machinery and equipment for financial leasing, and affect downstream related industries. The increase in interest rates leads to an increase in the necessary rate of return of investment funds and a reduction in the valuation of enterprises. At the same time, it also affects the allocation of investors among different assets. The return flow of bank deposits may increase, which has an adverse impact on the stock market

experimental parameters can be set in advance. At present, major banks have tightened the loan scale, which brings certain difficulties to the loans of small and medium-sized enterprises. Under such circumstances, if enterprises want to purchase machinery and equipment to expand reproduction, financing has undoubtedly become the biggest problem. This is bound to affect the future sales expectations of machine tool enterprises. These small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises are the main customer groups of small and medium-sized machine tool enterprises. Although the orders are still in the short term, we have to doubt that if the bank money continues to tighten and the purchasing power of the main customer groups decreases, the impact on the orders of small and medium-sized machine tool enterprises will increase

positive impact:

interest rate hike brings new opportunities

some enterprises that rely on technology and scientific and technological innovation to win are likely to stand out in this social background. For example, in CNC machine tools, CNC systems, all kinds of modular machine tools, with high-quality service and good reputation in the competition of the whole industry. Raising interest rates may bring new opportunities to such enterprises. For example, on June 28, Guilin Fuda group produced 14000 tons of double crank hot die forging press, becoming the world's largest hot die forging press at present. The energy consumption index of the project has reached the advanced level of Europe, America, Japan and other countries

the interest rate hike brings more profits.

the cost increase of machine tool enterprises is on the one hand, but similarly, rich profits are also the expectation after the interest rate hike. After all, the machine tool industry belongs to the category of heavy industry, and the transaction volume of single machine is often high. With the expansion of production scale and the normalization of operation, the profitability of enterprises will not be affected. On the contrary, if we can independently research and develop, improve performance and improve various accuracy indicators, we will get more benefits

raising interest rates inhibits blind investment

in today's highly developed market economy awareness, imagine that every enterprise's decision-makers will not violate the objective laws of economy and expand investment regardless of cost. Of course, the leverage of interest rate alone is limited to curb the blind investment expansion of enterprises. The state also has other hard measures, such as restricting loans, restricting land use, strict examination and approval, etc. The interest rate increase is conducive to the reasonable merger and bankruptcy of some machine tool enterprises that are not strong and have no development potential. Make the whole industry in a good competitive state

The bank raised interest rates for three purposes. The head of the central bank said that raising interest rates is an important decision we have made to further consolidate the achievements of macro-control and maintain the good momentum of sustained, rapid, coordinated and healthy development of the national economy

specifically, first, continue to consolidate the achievements of macro-control in the early stage. Since 2003, China's economy has continued to grow rapidly. At the same time, the investment in fixed assets has increased significantly, and the investment in a few industries has increased too fast, which has endangered the sustained and healthy development of the economy. In order to slow down the growth rate of fixed asset investment, the central bank has successively used monetary tools such as raising the deposit reserve ratio and open market business, and achieved certain results. Subsequently, the central bank forcibly intervened in financial institutions' credit support for steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement and other industries, further controlling the growth of fixed asset investment

the second is to prevent inflation and stabilize market prices. Since the beginning of the year, China's consumer price index (CPI) has been at a high level, hovering around 5% of the warning line. According to the figures released by the National Bureau of statistics, from January to September, CPI increased by 4% over the same period last year. 1%, with a year-on-year increase of 5 in September. 2%, down from the previous month. The rise in grain and food prices is the main force driving the rise in CPI. At present, China has a bumper autumn harvest, and the rising trend of CPI led by grain prices is expected to ease after the autumn harvest. However, a new round of rising international oil prices and tight supply of energy such as electricity and coal have been transmitted to consumer goods prices through multiple transmission mechanisms. CPI may still remain high, and it is necessary to prevent inflation by raising interest rates

third, enhance residents' savings confidence and alleviate the liquidity risk of the banking industry. Since December 2003, China's savings deposit interest rate has been negative for nine consecutive months, especially in the past three months, because the CPI has been at a high level of more than 5%, the negative deposit interest rate is at a higher level. Affected by this, since the first half of the year, the growth rate of residents' savings deposits has gradually slowed down, and even negative growth has occurred. A large amount of money in residents' hands began to flow to real estate and other markets. At the same time, the diversion of savings deposits has led to the reduction of available credit funds in the banking industry, the contradiction of "short-term deposit and long-term loan" has become more prominent, and the liquidity risk has increased. The central bank hopes to guide residents to increase long-term savings deposits, further enhance the stability of savings deposits and alleviate the liquidity risk pressure of the banking industry through the guiding role of this interest rate increase

the interest rate hike may be carried out to the end.

Tong announced that Jackson, senior capital market strategist of Royal Bank of Canada, said on Wednesday (13th) that China's GDP growth in the second quarter was higher than expected, indicating that the Chinese government may continue to tighten monetary policy to control inflation

Jackson said, "there is no doubt that we are witnessing a slight slowdown in China's economic growth, but the pace is very stable, which helps to ease our concerns about the risk of a hard landing for China's economy. Moreover, this does increase the possibility of the Central Bank of China continuing to raise interest rates. I previously expected the Central Bank of China to raise interest rates only once in the third quarter, but today's data raises the risk of the central bank increasing the number of interest rate hikes in the second half of the year"

the National Bureau of statistics of China announced earlier on Wednesday that the GDP in the first half of 2011 was 20445.9 billion yuan, an increase of 9.6% year-on-year at comparable prices; Among them, the first quarter increased by 9.7%, and the second quarter increased by 9.5%. Previously, the market expected GDP growth of 9.4% year-on-year in the second quarter

in addition, the economic growth rate in the second quarter also accelerated on a quarterly basis. The quarter on quarter GDP growth rate was 2.2%, and the quarter on quarter growth rate was 2.1%. In terms of industries, the added value of the primary industry was 1570 billion yuan, an increase of 3.2%; The added value of the secondary industry was 10217.8 billion yuan, an increase of 11.0%; The added value of the tertiary industry was 8658.1 billion yuan, an increase of 9.2%. On a month on month basis, GDP grew by 2.2% in the second quarter

machine tool enterprises develop healthily with scientific and technological innovation

how to survive in the case of fierce interest rate hikes in the machine tool industry. Financial weekly is optimistic that the growth of the machinery industry will continue. In the future, with the strong support of the 12th Five Year Plan for high-end equipment, emerging industrial equipment and other fields, these fields will grow rapidly, which will drive the machinery industry as a whole to continue to maintain a rapid growth trend. It is expected that the compound growth rate of the industry in the next five years will be between 22% and 25%. Focus on Zoomlion, Xuxin Dow and new DuPont in the construction machinery industry, Qingming machinery and Changlin, as well as Shenyang machine tool and Tianma in the machine tool industry

I personally believe that as long as machine tool enterprises establish a sense of innovation, pay attention to independent research and development of technology, increase investment in science and technology, follow the route of domestic characteristics, and appropriately introduce advanced technology, they will be sure that they will not be affected too much under the background of the central bank's interest rate hike, reduce the impact, and achieve healthy, sustainable and stable development

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI